US should study Ukraine war, dominate AI drone tech: Eric Schmidt

Tim Hinchliffe
Fri, 09 May 2025 19:11:22 +0000
Military Technology, drones, eric schmidt, military technology, pentagon, perspective

AI is an all purpose tool, for good or ill, and Schmidt is placing his bets where he could profit from both: perspective

Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt tells the Milken Institute that the US should study the war in Ukraine to learn about the future of warfare and dominate in AI and drone technologies.

Speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference 2025 on May 6, Schmidt said that the US should study the war between Russia and Ukraine in order to plan for the AI and drone-powered future of warfare because human-crewed tanks and jets are quickly becoming a thing of the past.

According to Schmidt, the long-held paradigm of men with guns fighting against other men with guns is all but extinct.

“War will prosecuted over the internet […] People will be drinking coffee while these wars are prosecuted, and the actual fight will occur above — these things that are essentially robotic […] Having a fighter jet with a human in it makes absolutely no sense”
Eric Schmidt, Milken Institute Global Conference, May 2025

Eric Schmidt: "War will be prosecuted over the internet. In the equivalent of Moscow & Kiev people will be drinking coffee while these wars are prosecuted & the actual fight will occur above. Having a fighter jet with a human makes absolutely no sense" https://t.co/kZvU0t0jEp pic.twitter.com/jpN0nuk3sy
— Tim Hinchliffe (@TimHinchliffe) May 7, 2025

“For thousands of years we’ve had the notion of, stereotypically, a man and a gun fighting another man and a gun, or with a horse or what have you,” said Schmidt.

“We’re now breaking that connection forever!

“Because the war will prosecuted over the internet in one form or another, and in the equivalent of Moscow and Kiev, people will be drinking coffee while these wars are prosecuted, and the actual fight will occur above — these things that are essentially robotic.

“This means, for example, that having a fighter jet with a human in it makes absolutely no sense.

“So, all of a sudden the logic of everything that we in our military do just doesn’t make any sense; you should be building attritable, automated robotic systems for defense and offense,” he added.

With another reference to the war in Ukraine, the ex-Google CEO and former inaugural chair of the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Board said that five million dollar tanks were being defeated by five thousand dollar drones.

“Nobody uses tanks anymore […] A five thousand dollar drone can destroy a five million dollar tank”
Eric Schmidt, Milken Institute Global Conference, May 2025

Russia sent the "Biowaste Group" — people infected with 'HIV or Hep A' — to the front lines. Nobody uses tanks anymore. A $5K drone can destroy a $5M tank: Eric Schmidt @MilkenInstitute #MIGlobal https://t.co/kZvU0t0jEp pic.twitter.com/6NpR61Q9tj
— Tim Hinchliffe (@TimHinchliffe) May 7, 2025

“The people building drones in Ukraine is very interesting. I always assumed that wars were tanks,” said Schmidt.

“Nobody uses tanks anymore; they’re completely unsafe. A five thousand dollar drone can destroy a five million dollar tank — by the way, a US tank costs 30 million dollars.”

With that knowledge, Schmidt said that the president and the Pentagon should study the war in Ukraine because they are wasting money on tanks and other things that they don’t need.

“The president and the Pentagon are buying more of all the things that they don’t need. What they should do — just being very blunt — is study this war, and then America needs to dominate this future”
Eric Schmidt, Milken Institute Global Conference, May 2025

Eric Schmidt says the US has 5,000 Abrams tanks in warehouses in Germany & should just give them all away. "The president & Pentagon are buying more of all the things they don't need" @MilkenInstitute #MIGlobal https://t.co/kZvU0t0jEp pic.twitter.com/pk9r2I3eoo
— Tim Hinchliffe (@TimHinchliffe) May 7, 2025

“We have 5,000 Abrams tanks I believe in Germany sitting in warehouses — give them to someone else,” said Schmidt.

“I’m serious, we just don’t need them, and if you look at the current budget proposal, the president and the Pentagon are buying more of all the things that they don’t need.

“What they should do — just being very blunt — is study this war, and then America needs to dominate this future […] America’s good at innovation, why are we not innovating into this space?” he added.

“No human can plan a [million drone] battle to either attack or defend against your attack without AI, and in particular, reinforcement learning“
Eric Schmidt, Milken Institute Global Conference, May 2025

Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says Ukraine – Russia war will "continue for a long time" with the next phase being AI-powered drone swarms fighting each other. @MilkenInstitute #MIGlobal https://t.co/kZvU0t0jEp pic.twitter.com/T7MBt2uq7C
— Tim Hinchliffe (@TimHinchliffe) May 7, 2025

On stage at the Milken Institute, Schmidt imagined a scenario a year from now where both sides of the conflict have a million drones apiece, with varying capabilities.

He concluded that this type of drone warfare could not be conducted without the help of AI, but even then, the outcomes would become so unpredictable that both sides would be deterred from fighting one another.

“No human can plan a battle to either attack or defend against your attack without AI, and in particular, reinforcement learning,” he said.

“The end state,” according to Schmidt, would be “reinforcement learning planning simultaneous defense and attacks on both sides, which optimize for outcomes.”

The result?

When faced with that scenario, the outcomes would be so unpredictable that the average human “would be so scared of what would happen” that it would serve as a deterrent from fighting.

In other words, unlike the deterrent of mutual annihilation in the case of all out nuclear war, the deterrent for not launching AI-powered drone swarm attacks would be that no human would be able to predict the outcome.

Using that logic, the more AI-powered drones on either side, the safer everyone would be.

“Data centers will require an additional 29 gigawatts of power by 2027, and 67 more gigawatts by 2030”
Eric Schmidt, Congressional Testimony, April 2025

This probably helps explain why Schmidt bought Relativity Space. https://t.co/E9c4VuF6LI
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) April 28, 2025

Yes. https://t.co/UiRO5a2zaw
— Eric Schmidt (@ericschmidt) April 29, 2025

The increasing energy demands of AI data centers are said to require more than 30 gigawatts of power in the coming years, enough to power dozens of cities.

On April 9, Schmidt testified before the House Committee on Energy and Commerce that AI revolution was “under-hyped” and that data centers would most likely “require an additional 29 gigawatts of power by 2027, and 67 more gigawatts by 2030.”

Responding to Schmidt’s testimony on X, Philip Johnston, the CEO of a startup called Starcloud, posted that “the only way to meet that demand is data centers powered by solar in space” — which is what Starcloud aims to do.

On the same thread, Ars Technica senior space editor Eric Berger commented, “This probably helps explain why Schmidt bought Relativity Space,” to which Eric Schmidt replied, “Yes.”

So, let’s take a look at a recent timeline of events:

March 10, 2025: Schmidt makes a “significant investment” in the aerospace startup Relativity Space and immediately becomes its CEO.

April 9, 2025: Schmidt tells congress that AI data centers will require an astronomical amount of energy.

April 29, 2025: Schmidt confirms on X that he took control of Relativity Space to build AI data centers in space

May 6, 2025: Schmidt says that the future of warfare will be AI-powered drones at the Milken Institute Global Conference

AI is an all purpose tool, for good or ill, and Schmidt is placing his bets where he could profit from both.

Image Source: Screenshot of Eric Schmidt speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference 2025 on May 6.

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